Maxed Out

Because the System i can run at redline speed all day long . . .

July 28, 2008

When a 47 Percent Decline Isn't Exactly Accurate

Although IBM had a fantastic Q2 2008, the 47 percent decline in System i revenue was a bit of a shocker, if only because IBM still broke it out for individual reporting. Didn't IBM converge the System i and p divisions about this time last year? Still, the actual hardware unification went down much more recently--announced in April at COMMON in Nashville, which also happens to be in the second quarter (so time is still flying). In any event, I spoke briefly with Ross Mauri, general manager of IBM Power Systems, for a quick update on the System i, IBM i, and Power Systems world.

Mauri revealed a few interesting nuggets, the biggest of which had to do with Q2 2008: The System i and IBM i second quarter was particularly busy for IBM, in which IBM announced the Power Systems lineup at COMMON and then went around the world for five weeks to talk to 10,000 customers in 20 countries at launch events, not to mention delivering new training for IBM's Business Partners.

"We were very tired when we were done with that five-week road show," Mauri joked.

In addition to spreading the message, IBM has been working on getting the actual newly converged line of hardware out, too. The point is, the second quarter saw a huge transition for our world at IBM, which trickled down. I'm sure quite a few customers took a pause to evaluate IBM's new 6.1 and hardware pricing messages and packages. For example, just considering a BladeCenter running a new POWER6-based blade is enough to burn up weeks, if not months, of evaluation time.

Still, what gives with "down 47 percent" and IBM i on Power Systems?

"From a legacy i point of view, we had an OK quarter. We had double-digit growth in Asia-Pacific, in particular China, Southeast Asia, and India. We saw some worldwide double-digit growth in some key industry segments--in banking, travel and transportation, and industrial products," Mauri said.

"The way legacy i is reported, that's simply all the old products, the POWER5 and POWER5+ products that were in market before our April announcement. So from a reporting point of view it was down but from an overall i client base point of view, we have some significant and attractive products and we're seeing good uptake on them, including the new Blade option--the JS12 sitting in a BladeCenter S or H--and we're seeing good growth in the mid market around our very successful Vertical Industry Program, which is driving customer solutions with local ISVs and local Business Partners," he added.

More important, Mauri acknowledged that there are some issues about IBM reporting POWER5/5+ System i revenue in massive "declines" . . . because that message doesn't exactly reflect what's going on with IBM's new i-focused sales. New IBM i-based Power Systems are getting reported under System p, which grew 29 percent for the quarter. So what gives with IBM lumping it all together? How long will that continue? Indefinitely, it seems.

"We'll continue externally reporting that way . . . that's how we can track straight to ledger and all those types of things," Mauri said, noting that he'll personally have to find new ways to communicate with the various communities and client bases that are part of the converged brand.

"I'll have to find other indicators that will show success in Unix, in Linux, and success in i so that we'll have some type of relative measure to watch--but it'll be different than in the past," he said. "I'm working on that right now."

Your Indicators

So if future IBM financial reports aren't going to paint a clear picture of what's happening in the IBM i-focused world, what kinds of indicators might Mauri share with us?

Posted by cmaxcer at July 28, 2008 9:39 AM

Comments

IBM still make two separate lines of Power 6 with different part numbers - one with an i flavour and one with an AIX and Linux flavour. The latter can't run the i operating system. The reality therefore is that the hardware is not yet converged. That happens later in the year. In the meantime, IBM can easily report separate i-driven and AIX/Linux-driven revenue if they choose to do so. The question is 'Why don't they?'. The answer is that the division is dominated by p-people who don't understand, and hence don't sell, IBM i.

Posted by: John Taylor at July 28, 2008 1:21 PM

"...So if future IBM financial reports aren't going to paint a clear picture of what's happening in the IBM i-focused world, what kinds of indicators might Mauri share with us? ..."

The number of IBM i licenses sold per quarter. The number of SWMAs in effect at the end of the quarter. WDS and rational sales in the quarter are good metrics for knowing how much application programming is being done on the i.

-Steve

Posted by: Steve Richter at July 28, 2008 2:14 PM

Well first off Chris good on you for at least bringing the issue more into view.

I mentioned this on Midrange-L last week and among some friends. It was clear that one had to read the detailed comments of the earnings call to see the truth.

With the revenue all under System p (and I would expect that to eventually be renamed POWER) and with IBM apparently set to contine reporting in this fashion than the extra work Ross Mauri should do is make sure that the summary data includes that little bit of extra information to make things more clear.

They need to realize there are customers and partners who are making important business decisions -- as in whether or not to support IBM i going forward -- based solely on that earnings announcement without the benefit of the detailed comments.

How else do we get the right information presented? Steve's suggestion of i licenses is a good one. Instead of lumping all of that into OS revenue, let's see that broken out.

Posted by: Kevin Mort at July 28, 2008 8:45 PM

The title reminds me of an imaginary scene on the Titanic just before it went under. When the water was reaching the passengers mouths, someone (Ross maybe?) shouted, all is not that bad, I can see some bright spots here and there.

Let's face it, the challenge for IBM 5 years ago was: show me a brand new customer who was on another platform before. 5 years later, the challenge today has become: show me a long time customer who is willing to upgrade his iSeries machine to a newer model.

As far as indicators, I used to search www.ebay.com about twice a year on "as/400". I recall there were each time an abundance of result pages. Check it now and say Holy Mozes.

Posted by: ugeerts at July 29, 2008 2:29 PM

Cudos to Chris for raising the issue with Ross Mauri, even though it sounds like he responded vaguely.

I agree with Steve Richter about reporting IBM i licenses issued (in units). Reporting Rational licenses would be good too. I doubt they'll give it though. For being a publicly traded company, IBM seems to be closely held.

Posted by: Nathan M. Andelin at July 30, 2008 4:26 PM

Reporting such as "revenues from the System i servers decreased 47 percent" will frighten off potential adopters and scare away current customers. For IBM i to have a viable future, we need positive news and encouraging reports.

Posted by: Keng Siau at July 31, 2008 9:42 AM

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